Blue hydrogen market seen reaching 7.89 million tons by 2031

Mordor Intelligence says the global blue hydrogen market is expected to surge from 0.81 million tons in 2026 to 7.89 million tons by 2031, driven by carbon capture projects, ammonia trade routes and policy support. Asia-Pacific is emerging as the main growth region as Japan, South Korea and others build supply chains around lower-carbon hydrogen and ammonia.

Why it matters: - Blue hydrogen is moving from a niche industrial fuel to a larger part of the low-carbon energy supply chain. - The market’s growth could reshape ammonia trade, chemical production and hydrogen infrastructure investment across Asia, North America and Europe. - Mordor Intelligence projects the market will grow at a 57.64% CAGR from 2026 to 2031.

What happened: - Mordor Intelligence said the global blue hydrogen market will rise from 0.81 million tons in 2026 to 7.89 million tons by 2031. - The firm said Asia-Pacific is emerging as a leading demand region, helped by blue ammonia supply agreements with Japan and South Korea. - The report pointed to growing investment in autothermal reforming plants with carbon capture, supported by the US IRA 45V tax credit and EU regulations. - The report also said shared carbon capture and storage infrastructure in the US Gulf Coast, the North Sea and Alberta is lowering project costs. - The report was published Nov. 4, 2026.

The details: - Blue ammonia exports from Saudi Arabia to Japan are showing how ammonia can move hydrogen over long distances. - South Korea is investing in ammonia-cracking infrastructure to support regional hydrogen supply chains. - Japan and South Korea are using these trade routes to secure lower-carbon hydrogen while facing limited domestic renewable energy supply. - Chemical manufacturers are adopting blue hydrogen as a lower-carbon feedstock for ammonia and methanol production. - Blue hydrogen is also gaining traction in fertilizer and marine fuel production as companies try to meet emissions rules. - Carbon capture incentives and demand for certified low-carbon products are pushing producers toward long-term supply deals. - The report said carbon capture raises energy use, feedstock consumption and operating costs. - Autothermal reforming can improve efficiency, but added oxygen supply infrastructure increases project expense. - High natural gas prices in Europe continue to pressure blue hydrogen economics. - Hydrogen pyrolysis remains an early-stage alternative. - The report listed key technology segments as steam methane reforming plus CCS, autothermal reforming plus CCS, gas partial oxidation plus CCS, natural gas pyrolysis and integrated SMR-ATR hybrid systems. - The end-user segments include refining, chemicals, iron and steel, transportation and other industries such as cement, glass and food. - The geography split covers Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, South America, and the Middle East and Africa. - Mordor Intelligence said the full report is available here.

Between the lines: - The market outlook depends less on hydrogen demand alone and more on whether carbon capture, storage and transport networks can scale fast enough to make blue hydrogen economical. - Asia-Pacific stands out because the region combines strong industrial demand with import needs, making ammonia and shipping infrastructure especially important. - Europe’s policy support is real, but high gas prices and storage constraints could slow deployment compared with regions that have cheaper feedstock and established CCS hubs.

What's next: - The report expects more blue hydrogen and ammonia projects tied to industrial customers in refining, chemicals and fertilizer markets. - Asia-Pacific supply chains are likely to expand as Japan and South Korea build import and cracking infrastructure. - More project announcements may follow in regions with policy support, tax credits and shared CCS access. - The report highlighted March 2025 and August 2026 project milestones as examples of the sector’s momentum. - In March 2025, Aramco completed its purchase of a 50% stake in Blue Hydrogen Industrial Gases Company, a joint venture with Air Products Qudra in Jubail, Saudi Arabia. - In August 2026, CF Industries, JERA and Mitsui broke ground on the Blue Point One project in Louisiana with about $3.7 billion of investment. - The Louisiana plant is designed to use autothermal reforming to make hydrogen for low-carbon ammonia, with captured CO₂ sent for permanent storage. - The facility is expected to produce 1.4 million metric tons of ammonia a year and start operations in 2029.

The bottom line: - Blue hydrogen is gaining momentum because policy, carbon capture infrastructure and ammonia logistics are making it more commercially viable, especially in Asia-Pacific.